Personally, I think Oppenheimer was far and away the best film of last year for multiple reasons that I won't bother reiterating here. I expect it will win Best Picture and Best Director, therefore, for once I will actually agree with the Academy.

I'm less certain on the acting awards. Like you, I want Sandra Huller to win for Anatomy of a Murder, but I think Emma Stone will probably get this for Poor Things. I suspect Cillian Murphy will win for Oppenheimer, but I won't be unhappy if Paul Giamatti wins either. I thought The Holdovers was terrific.

More of my thoughts here, if you're interested: https://fanfare.pub/oscar-predictions-2024-ea70c7dd11df